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B.V. Boev

Research Institute epidemiology and microbiology N.F. Gamaleya RASM

The description of new scientific toolkit (epidemiological model and the computer program) for forecasting consequences of the act biological terrorism with application of the activator of a smallpox is given. The toolkit allows to receive important prognostication information on scales and laws of development of flashes of a smallpox which can be generated in result of "carrying out" of the activator from the natural center or from scientific laboratory, and also mass defeat of people in the act of biological terrorism.

Materials of flash of a natural smallpox in Moscow (1959-1960) are considered, which has formed the basis for creation of the computer program for forecasting development of flashes of the smallpox caused by "delivery" of the activator from the country - center of a smallpox. With the help of new toolkit calculations on forecasting scales and laws of development of flashes of a smallpox can be carried out as a result of acts the biological terrorism when hundreds person simultaneously catch. As a result of calculations estimations of consequences for several scripts of counteraction to the act of terrorism have been received: 1) early detection of a smallpox with realization of the basic measures of counteraction; 2) later detection with realization of a part of measures of counteraction; Comparison of results of computing experiment show, that is necessary to prepare beforehand for protection of the population against flashes of epidemics of a smallpox, thus the important role is played with adequate measures on revealing and isolation of sick and contact persons from 100 % reliability and mass vaccination of the population.

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Proceedings of First Russian Workshop on Biological Security
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